AI Infrastructure — Long Growth Ideas

Date: May 12, 2026

Screen: Long | All Caps | Growth | AI / Data Infrastructure

Market Context

Hyperscaler AI capex is running at ~$435B TTM (up from ~$250B in 2024), with consensus approaching $500B in calendar 2026. The cycle is broadening from GPU-centric training to inference-at-scale, agentic AI, and physical infrastructure — which expands the beneficiary set into networking, power, cooling, and connectors.

Hyperscaler Capex (TTM Through Q1 2026)

Company	FY 2025 Capex	TTM Capex (Q1 2026)	YoY Growth
Amazon (AMZN)	$131.8B	$151.0B	~15%
Alphabet (GOOGL)	$91.4B	$109.9B	~20%
Microsoft (MSFT)	$64.6B	$97.2B	~50%
Meta (META)	$69.7B	$75.7B	~9%
Combined	~$357B	~$434B	~22%

AI Infrastructure Value Chain

Layer 1: Chips / Semiconductors

Company	Ticker	TTM Revenue	YoY Growth	Fwd P/E	Notes
Nvidia	NVDA	$215.9B	+65.5%	26x	Blackwell Ultra (GB300) ramping
Broadcom	AVGO	$68.3B	+25.2% (FY26E +68%)	37x	Custom ASICs for Google, Meta
AMD	AMD	$37.5B	+35.0%	67x	MI350/MI400 gaining traction
Marvell	MRVL	$8.2B	+42.1%	44x	Custom ASICs + PAM4 SerDes
TSMC	TSM	$128.3B	+30.7%	21.5x	Foundry monopoly; CoWoS bottleneck

Layer 2: AI Connectivity / Networking Chips

Company	Ticker	TTM Revenue	YoY Growth	Fwd P/E	Notes
Credo Technology	CRDO	$1.07B	+226%	~50-62x	Active electrical cables; DustPhotonics acquisition
Astera Labs	ALAB	$1.00B	+104%	62x	PCIe/CXL connectivity; Scorpio X-Series
MACOM Technology	MTSI	$1.07B	+27%	~40x	Data center RF/optical; DC revenue +60%

Layer 3: AI Networking (Switches / Optical)

Company	Ticker	TTM Revenue	YoY Growth	Fwd P/E	Notes
Arista Networks	ANET	$9.71B	+30.6%	38x	AI Ethernet fabric; cloud titans 45%+ of revenue
Lumentum	LITE	$2.49B	+69%	66.5x	Joining Nasdaq-100 May 18
Ciena	CIEN	$5.12B	+26.5%	~40x	$7B backlog; +53% price in past month
Coherent Corp	COHR	$6.60B	+18%	51x	Optical transceivers + ZR modules

Layer 4: Servers / Cloud Infrastructure

Company	Ticker	TTM Revenue	YoY Growth	Fwd P/E	Notes
Super Micro	SMCI	$33.7B	+56%	11-15x	Cheapest valuation; audit overhang
Dell Technologies	DELL	~$95B	+19% (accel to 27%)	19x	Enterprise AI server cycle
Celestica	CLS	~$15B	+28.5%	46x	DS6000 1.6TbE switches
Jabil	JBL	$32.7B	+19%	27x	Intelligent infrastructure segment

Layer 5: Data Center REITs

Company	Ticker	TTM Revenue	YoY Growth	Fwd P/E	Div Yield
Equinix	EQIX	$9.53B	+8.1%	75x	1.9%
Digital Realty	DLR	$6.31B	+14.4%	52x	2.5%
Iron Mountain	IRM	$7.25B	+15.6%	141x	2.7%

Layer 6: Power Infrastructure

Company	Ticker	TTM Revenue	YoY Growth	Fwd P/E	Notes
Constellation Energy	CEG	$29.9B	+23.4%	26x	Nuclear baseload; hyperscaler PPAs
Vistra	VST	$19.4B	+7.4%	26x	Texas nuclear/gas; investment grade
Talen Energy	TLN	$3.24B	+55.1%	17x	Amazon 1.92 GW nuclear PPA
Bloom Energy	BE	$2.45B	+56.5%	N/M	Oracle 2.8 GW fuel cell agreement
GE Vernova	GEV	$39.4B	+10.3%	57x	Power turbines + electrification

Layer 7: Power Distribution / Grid

Company	Ticker	TTM Revenue	YoY Growth	Fwd P/E	Notes
Eaton	ETN	$28.5B	+12.7%	~35x	Switchgear/PDU; co-developed with Nvidia
nVent Electric	NVT	~$4.9B	+29.5%	36x	DC enclosures; Q1 sales +53%; $2.6B backlog
Quanta Services	PWR	~$35B	+20.3%	54x	Grid buildout; guidance raised
WESCO International	WCC	~$25B	+7.8% (DC: +70%)	22x	Electrical distribution; most overlooked

Layer 8: Cooling / Thermal Management

Company	Ticker	TTM Revenue	YoY Growth	Fwd P/E	Notes
Vertiv	VRT	$10.84B	+29%	54-57x	$15B backlog; acquired Strategic Thermal Labs
Comfort Systems USA	FIX	$10.14B	+38.4%	46x	$12.5B backlog; Q1 EPS doubled
Modine Mfg	MOD	$2.87B	+13.2%	41x	Data center sales +78%

Layer 9: Connectors / Passive Components

Company	Ticker	TTM Revenue	YoY Growth	Fwd P/E	Notes
Amphenol	APH	~$20B	+54.4%	25x	AI server connectors; earnings +71%

Layer 10: Software Infrastructure

Company	Ticker	TTM Revenue	YoY Growth	Fwd P/E	Notes
Palantir	PLTR	~$5.3B	+68% (Q1 +85%)	87-102x	AIP platform; government + enterprise
Datadog	DDOG	~$3.2B	+30%	91x	AI observability; accelerating
Snowflake	SNOW	$4.68B	+29%	83x	Agentic enterprise control plane
Cloudflare	NET	~$2.3B	+32%	168x	Accelerating; persistently negative margins

Layer 11: Semiconductor Equipment

Company	Ticker	TTM Revenue	YoY Growth	Fwd P/E	Notes
Lam Research	LRCX	$21.7B	+26.5%	40x	CoWoS packaging + etch
Onto Innovation	ONTO	~$1.3B	+2% (guide +30%)	36x	AI packaging inspection

Top Ideas — Detailed

1. Talen Energy (TLN) — Nuclear power mispriced as utility

Metric	Value	vs. Peers
Market cap	~$15B	Mid-cap power
Fwd P/E	17.4x	CEG 26x, VST 26x
Revenue growth	+55% YoY	Fastest in power
Catalyst	Amazon 1.92 GW PPA	Largest hyperscaler nuclear deal

Thesis:

Signed the largest single clean energy deal in hyperscaler history (Amazon, 1.92 GW)
Trades at 17x forward — the market prices it as a traditional utility, not AI infrastructure
Power is the binding constraint on AI scale (every GB300 chip draws ~1,000W)
Nuclear baseload is irreplaceable for 24/7 AI workloads

Key Risks: Regulatory/permitting delays; nuclear operating incidents; PPA renegotiation risk

Next Steps: Build model; size PPA economics; assess regulatory timeline

2. Broadcom (AVGO) — Custom AI silicon at scale, accelerating

Metric	Value	vs. Peers
Market cap	~$1.1T	Mega-cap
Fwd P/E	37x	NVDA 26x, MRVL 44x
Revenue growth	FY26E +68%	Accelerating from 25% TTM
Op margin	~41%	Expanding (was 26% in FY24)

Thesis:

Primary ASIC design partner for Google, Meta — $35B+ in custom AI silicon commitments
Growth is accelerating (29% in Q1 FY26, FY26 consensus 68%) — rare at this scale
Operating margins expanding as AI silicon mix shifts higher
Diversified across networking, ASICs, and VMware integration

Key Risks: Customer concentration (Google ~30%+ of AI revenue); Nvidia competitive response; VMware integration execution

Next Steps: Model XPU revenue ramp; assess Google/Meta commitment durability

3. Arista Networks (ANET) — AI networking with best-in-class margins

Metric	Value	vs. Peers
Market cap	~$125B	Large-cap
Fwd P/E	38x	33% upside to avg analyst PT
Revenue growth	+35% (Q1 '26)	Accelerating from 28%
Op margin	42.8%	Best in networking

Thesis:

AI cluster scale-out (10K to 100K+ GPU pods) requires massive Ethernet fabric buildout
Growth is accelerating into Q1 2026, driven by cloud titans (45%+ of revenue)
43% operating margins provide downside protection and compounding power
Cheaper than software peers (38x vs NET 168x, DDOG 91x) with comparable growth

Key Risks: Nvidia InfiniBand competition; hyperscaler concentration; AI spending deceleration

Next Steps: Confirm AI networking share gains vs. InfiniBand; model TAM expansion

4. WESCO International (WCC) — Hidden AI infrastructure play

Metric	Value	vs. Peers
Market cap	~$12B	Mid-cap industrial
Fwd P/E	22x	Cheapest in AI infra universe
Data center rev growth	+70% YoY	$1.4B in Q1 alone
Overall rev growth	+8%	Masks the DC segment

Thesis:

Electrical distribution for data centers growing 70% YoY — but the market prices the blended business
At 22x forward P/E, it's the cheapest high-growth data center play in the entire AI ecosystem
Industrial distributor classification means AI infrastructure ETFs and thematic funds haven't discovered it
Massive structural demand for switchgear, cabling, PDUs as data center capacity doubles

Key Risks: Margin pressure from competition; industrial segment cyclicality; working capital intensity

Next Steps: Segment-level analysis; size DC TAM; assess margin trajectory

5. Amphenol (APH) — AI connectors at an industrial multiple

Metric	Value	vs. Peers
Market cap	~$95B	Large-cap
Fwd P/E	25x	Cheapest semi-adjacent play
Revenue growth	+54% TTM	Earnings +71%
Quality	High ROIC, diversified	Decades of consistent returns

Thesis:

Every AI server, switch, and rack needs high-speed connectors — Amphenol is the dominant supplier
54% revenue growth and 71% earnings growth, yet trades at only 25x forward (industrial discount)
Sticky, defensible position — switching costs are high for precision connectors
Decades of consistent capital allocation and ROIC track record

Key Risks: Cyclical exposure beyond AI; customer concentration; acquisition digestion

Next Steps: Verify AI connector TAM sizing; assess competitive positioning vs. TE Connectivity

6. Credo Technology (CRDO) — Fastest growth in AI connectivity

Metric	Value	vs. Peers
Market cap	~$14B	Mid-cap
Fwd P/E	~50-62x	Premium for 226% growth
Revenue growth	+226% YoY	Peak was 274%
Op margin	30.2%	Was -19% a year ago

Thesis:

Active electrical cables are critical for hyperscale AI cluster interconnect
Revenue growth of 226% with margins swinging from -19% to +30% — massive operating leverage inflection
DustPhotonics acquisition ($750M) positions them in silicon photonics for 1.6Tbps+ cycle
Pure-play on AI cluster scale-out — every GPU pod expansion needs their product

Key Risks: Growth decelerating from peak; customer concentration; optical transition timing

Next Steps: Track deceleration curve; entry on pullback preferred; model silicon photonics TAM

7. Nvidia (NVDA) — Core AI position at compressed multiple

Metric	Value	vs. Peers
Market cap	~$3.4T	Mega-cap
Fwd P/E (FY27)	26x	Cheapest mega-cap AI name
Revenue growth	+65% (FY26)	At $216B scale
Op margin	60.4%	Expanding

Thesis:

65% growth at $216B revenue with 60% margins — extraordinary at this scale
Blackwell Ultra (GB300) ramping; Rubin cycle provides multi-year growth visibility
Forward P/E of 26x is the lowest among all AI infra companies growing >25%
Software/ecosystem moat (CUDA, NVLink) makes displacement structurally difficult

Key Risks: Custom ASIC adoption; export restrictions; law of large numbers

Next Steps: Maintain as core position; monitor ASIC adoption rate

8. Dell Technologies (DELL) — Cheapest AI server cycle play

Metric	Value	vs. Peers
Market cap	~$95B	Large-cap
Fwd P/E	19x	Second cheapest after SMCI
Revenue growth	+19% (accelerating to 27%)	PowerEdge AI server inflection
Margins	Slowly expanding	7.2% op margin

Thesis:

Enterprise AI server adoption is just beginning — Dell is the trusted enterprise vendor
Growth accelerating from 8% to 19% to 27% forward — market hasn't fully re-rated
At 19x forward, you're getting AI infrastructure exposure at a value multiple
Storage + networking attach rates on AI servers provide margin upside

Key Risks: Low margins; SMCI competitive pricing pressure; enterprise spending could be lumpy

Next Steps: Model AI server margin trajectory; assess enterprise adoption curve

Comparison Table

Ticker	Rev Growth	Fwd P/E	Margin Trend	Acceleration	Risk/Reward
TLN	55%	17x	Expanding	Stable	Best
WCC	70% (DC)	22x	Stable	Strong	Best
APH	54%	25x	Expanding	Strong	Excellent
NVDA	65%	26x	Expanding	Moderate	Excellent
AVGO	68% (FY26E)	37x	Expanding	Yes	Very Good
ANET	35%	38x	Stable high	Yes	Very Good
DELL	27% (fwd)	19x	Expanding	Yes	Good
CRDO	226%	50-62x	Strong expansion	Decelerating	Good (premium)

Priority — Research Next

TLN — Deepest value dislocation; build model immediately
WCC — Least discovered; segment-level analysis needed
AVGO — Accelerating at mega-cap scale; FY26 earnings revisions likely too low
APH — Quality compounder at value price; verify connector TAM
ANET — Confirm AI networking share gains vs. InfiniBand
DELL — Model AI server margin trajectory
CRDO — Track deceleration curve; entry on pullback preferred
NVDA — Core position; maintain unless thesis breaks

Avoid / Watch

Ticker	Reason
PLTR	87-102x P/E; no margin of safety despite great growth
VRT	Analyst consensus 26% below current price; valuation stretched
NET	168x P/E; persistently negative margins
MOD	Stock +252% but net income fell; narrative priced in
AI (C3.ai)	Negative revenue growth, deeply unprofitable
SMCI	11x P/E tempting but governance/audit risk is binary

Second-Order Beneficiaries (Under-Appreciated)

Company	Ticker	Why Overlooked	Opportunity
Talen Energy	TLN	Priced as utility	Nuclear PPA asset for AI
WESCO	WCC	Industrial distributor label	DC segment growing 70%
Comfort Systems	FIX	Mechanical contractor	$12.5B backlog; 38% growth
Amphenol	APH	Connector company	54% growth at 25x P/E
Onto Innovation	ONTO	Small-cap semi equip	AI packaging inspection bottleneck
Bloom Energy	BE	Fuel cell company	Oracle 2.8 GW on-site power deal

Recent Catalysts (Q1-Q2 2026)

Nvidia Blackwell Ultra (GB300) in production ramp; ~1,000W per chip intensifies power/cooling demand
Nvidia Rubin announced for late 2026/2027; requires NVLink 6 and new cooling
Nvidia + Eaton "Beam Rubin DSX Platform" for rack power management
Talen / Amazon PPA expanded to 1,920 MW nuclear
Oracle / Bloom Energy master agreement for 2.8 GW fuel cells
Credo + DustPhotonics ($750M) silicon photonics acquisition
Marvell + Polariton acquisition; 3.2Tbps optical
Celestica DS6000 1.6TbE switches available for orders
Astera Labs Scorpio X-Series ramping Q1 2026
Lumentum joining Nasdaq-100 effective May 18, 2026

Screening Methodology

Growth Screen Criteria:

Revenue growth >15% YoY (most recent quarter or TTM)
Earnings growth >20% YoY
Revenue acceleration (growth rate increasing QoQ) — flagged
Expanding or stable margins
High return on invested capital (>15%)

Thematic Filter:

Direct or second-order exposure to AI infrastructure buildout
Benefiting from hyperscaler capex cycle
Structural demand driver (not one-time)

Valuation Filter:

Growth-adjusted P/E (PEG-like assessment)
Comparison to sector peers
Upside/downside to analyst consensus price targets

Sources: StockAnalysis.com, DataCenterDynamics, SiliconAngle, company filings (Q1 2026 TTM data)